The National Intelligence Council: World Demographics

For those of you who are interested in strategic forecasting, the National Intelligence Council releases the very nicely done "Global Trends 2025" (pdf, 120 pages). The first nineteen pages give the Executive Summary, for those who only have time for the overview.

The following map shows age demographics, one important feature of the Trends report.
1. Large countries losing population, such as Russia or Central Africa, have huge problems with control and domain of their territory. That matters for law and order, including terrorism and international trafficking. Not to mention the possibility of war, or, their paranoia about invasion. It also matters when trying to streamline and fund social services.

2. Countries with aging populations will have less revolutions, less terrorist attacks or violent crime, but also less economic innovation.
3. Countries with aging populations will also need more human services (medicine, pensions, aging care). They might also need immigrants to pick up the slack on manufacturing jobs and business services.

Fascinating, right? I love a good map. The light pink countries--China, India, Brazil--are building economies to reckon with on the world stage. Brazil for instance is the world leader in biofuels.

People in those dark red countries will migrate to dark blue and light blue countries, bringing the capacity for labor or a propensity to violence, depending on who they are, how they've been taught, and whether they like how they're treated. That's a skinny line for us to walk. Looking at it this way depersonalizes immigration somewhat. It becomes something to analyze--to get the proper procedures in place. The right messages. We have to tweak that.

Percentage of Population Under Thirty Years Old, 2005 and 2025

Note: in a recent post, I mentioned information death in the Bush Administration. This is a solid contribution to information from the Bush Administration. Fair is fair.